Rise of Asia and New Global balance

International dominance have historically sustained so long as great rising powers have agreed to them. When one or multiple great powers have challenged the prevailing system, the outcome has always been hegemonic war. Antique past cannot ignore the fact that hegemonic war, rather than diplomatic settlement, has framed almost every international fluctuation.  The last decade has witness a paradigm shift in industrial and economic supremacy slipping  away from former mega powers  of the US, France, UK. This change is palpable in  the growing  potential  of rising  Asian countries, particularly  the demographically loaded  countries like  India and China.

Rise of Asia

Since the beginning of mid-19^th century, west has endured it’s supremacy over global political economy.  But history repeals this phenomena; during 1700, Asia’s global GDP was 57.6% with china’s sole contribution of 22.3% and India’s 24.5% contrary to Europe’s 25.3%. By 1870, Europe’s cut had raised to 37.7% while China’s bottomed  to 17.2% and the whole of Asia accounted for 36%. Europe reap maximum benefit  from the  colonial expansion and industrial uprising , while India, China and South East Asia undergo cold wars, foreign intrusion and domestic instability. Now, the historical revival  of South East Asia over the past two decades  reflects stable administration , competitive economic policies and rapid development . What’s ongoing  in current Asia  seems to be the repetition of what has happened in the Europe during Industrial revolution. This transformation  calls for global concern  to the changing world  power equation. 

  

     In contrary to the 20th century when the term “Asia” was often connoted with poverty and undeveloped, today the pendulum has swung to the opposite direction as Asia’s image is equated with impressive growth  and development . Projection shows that by 2030, Asia will surpass the United States and Europe in  GDP, Demographic force , technological investment and military spending. By then China alone is accounted  to reach 19.8% of world GDP, whereas Europe expected to descend  to 14.6% and the United States to 14.5%. 

The rise of Asia, reinforced by China’s multi-sectored progress, is unparalleled  in both pace and balance . At present, Asia not only has become the mega manufacturer around  globe, but it’s on verge  to occupy international market hub as well. Furthermore, in term of foreign reserve,  seven of the top ten nations  counts form Asia. With Singapore , Tokyo , Shanghai, Hong Kong  and Mumbai mounting to the standard of  international financial centers.  Evidently,  today’s ongoing  power shifts is predominantly connected with the world’s fastest-growing economies,  resource mobilization , rising military expenditures and most serious hot spots. Asia obviously stand on queue to the future global influence.

Implication of power shift 

This shift of global  order has upthrust some serious concerns over its implications. Among public  there exist three  expected explanation  of the rise of Asia. Firstly the rise invite  serious threat to pre-established world order. Particularly , as a rising power,  China will encounter a  clash with hegemonic  US, framing war theater  specially in  Asia‐Pacific. Second  assert that the rise of East vis‐à‐vis the fall  of Europe seems inevitable, resulting an end of the Western supremacy . Third one questions over the rise of Asia: amid fundamental disparities  among Asian nations in terms of political system, economic development, religious conflict and geopolitical alignments in world affairs, most Asian countries  are  doomed by their own internal problems. 

Although these possibilities appear very practical they tend to overlook some contextual realities of Asia’s rise and its consequences.  Unlike previous emerging  powers did,  China  and India , instead of challenging dominant world order, they  amalgamate  themselves into the same system.  This results China and to some extend India also become stakeholder of existing world order  long before they hold capacity to challenge it.   Similarly the view of “rise of Asia resulting  fall of west”  fail to recognize the fact that Asia achieved  rapid development by embracing  western values of capitalism and market economy. Of course, the rise of east will lead to redistribution of power and dominance  yet the course of achieving self-interest, will further integrate  Global communities rather than dividing apart . As evident, during  global economic crises in 2008  both established and emerging nations step together at G20 for communal solution, which in turn  yield collective benefit .  

International societies needs to identify the presence of divergent global orders  and those differences had many time added incidents of international conflicts in history books. With the rise of Asia, the world demand inclusive global institution to represent both east and west. Only that can provide the foundation of a new global consensus.