Consequences of the US-Iran Conflict

The United States told the United Nations that the killing of Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani was self-defense and vowed to take additional action “as necessary” in the Middle East to protect U.S. personnel and interests. On other side, Iran retaliated by firing 20 ballistic missiles at two military bases in Iraq where United States troops were stationed. It is believed that driving out the presence of United States from the region was the major objective of Iran and Soleimani’s personal mission. So the bigger picture is; Iran lost its best military strategist and the assignation ensured the elimination of a man who America saw as potential challenger of its primacy in region.

This conflicting spark made by US which is reciprocated by followed up retaliation of Iran could create ground for wider conflict in Middle East. The Iranian foreign minister Zarif has mentioned “Iran took & concluded proportionate measures in self-defense. We do not seek escalation or war, but will defend ourselves against any aggression” but the circumstance had already triggered invisible diplomatic blunders that will surely befall on upcoming days. If the Iran is upto retaliation U.S. human assets in the region will remain at great risk as Iranian allies and proxies will be dragged into this reprisal game causing the civilians to pay the price.

Some of the international sources have claimed that the plot of killing Soleimani was previously on the mark and on January 3rd Donald Trump took the shot. In 2017 The New York Times had reported that Saudi Major General Ahmed al-Assiri took part at a meeting in Riyadh in 2017 that involved plans to assassinate General Soleimani and sabotaging Iran’s economy. However, looking at the unfolding circumstances it doesn’t feel like the Trump administration had pre-planned the attack and considered its possible consequences. Given the previous action records of US, it used to have roadmap for what comes next but with Iran it seems like Trump’s unpredictability syndrome is more dominant than America’s national interest. Such context brings to the conclusion that both United States and Iran are now trapped in vicious circle of attack and counterattack that will trigger more conflict in already tensed region.

Since the covert action of United States in 1953 Iranian coup to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’s shooting down surveillance drone of US, there have been many tit-for-tat promises which later used to get settle on diplomatic understanding. However the recent scenario doesn’t tend to fit in old conflict model that used to have in-build resolution mechanism because the old rule of game is already breached by both nations. Unlike before the conflict has now found different ground where both states stand on verge to re-negotiate with destructive military actions to reach the new normal. The years-old conflict between the US and Iran has now become direct, immediate and exceedingly dangerous after the assassination of leading symbol of Iranian regional agenda. Inshort both remain vulnerable to diplomatic catch-22 coupled with possible uncertain action from opposite side.

With the military expenditure of 633565 USD Million in 2018, United States of course is the superpower yet it should consider the ability of opponents to strike back. Experts believes that Iran’s military arsenal may be no match for the United States’ in terms of technology, glitz and firepower, but Iran makes up for it with tactics and numbers in strategic places. Thus for the diplomatic resolution United States should explain its activities, clarify its strategy, re-affirm its national interest and take action to balance its relationship not just with Iran but with the Middle East region.

In the age of international relation and vibrant world politics, the incidents involving superpower like US will have international impacts. West Asia has been polarised by the dispute, with the UAE, Egypt and Israel taking Saudi Arabia’s side while Turkey, Russia and Qatar are being much more sympathetic to Iran. In such context, economists have presumed that the potential conflict would result worldwide effects on energy prices, and cause a domino effect on the economies of South Asia and Nepal too remain no exception. Remittances are worth 31% of Nepal’s GDP and 1.5 million of its nationals are working abroad in the Gulf region with nearly 600,000 workers in Qatar and 350,000 in Saudi Arabia as well as the rest scattered in other parts of Gulf countries. Thus the possible conflict will surely impact the flow of remittance and safety of Nepalese working abroad.

Trump is nowhere near to solving the US-Iran ongoing conflict the situation can get even worse as he has already indirectly declared victory over Iran during his speech. While making critical analysis of the previous negotiation with North Korea and in trade talks with China, it can be noticed that Trump has developed a kind of impulse to provoke near-crises, accepting the status quo and then declaring victory. Similar trend is repeating in case of Iran too. When Trump had the chance to avoid another shot at Iran when it was waving the white flag, he fuelled US-Iran standoff with new statements and actions. Beside military one of the abstract strength that has sustained American primacy till date is its soft power and the appeal of its ideals. With the action like assassination of Qassem Soleimani and many other deeds in past years, United States is losing its soft-aura that actually ensured its position of superpower for many years.

References

NY Times Report: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/11/world/middleeast/saudi-iran-assassinations-mohammed-bin-salman.html

Remittance impact in Nepal : http://nepalesevoice.com/bussiness/us-iran-tensions-could-affect-nepals-remittances/